this study was eventually retracted by all of the lead author’s coauthors after it was revealed that the lead author had not disclosed his conflict of interest (some of the children’s families were seen as part of legal cases for example), that he had not adhered to his ethically approved protocol (some of the control group were recruited at a children’s birthday party for example), and because after a decade or more of research, it is clear that autism is not caused by vaccines. For example, subsequent large scale studies in countries where the MMR vaccine was only introduced to one part of the population found that autism rates did not differ among the vaccinated and non-vaccinated parts of the population. Nonetheless, the damage was done and the myth has persisted for decades.
Why are diagnoses of autism increasing?
The rate of autism diagnosis is undoubtedly increasing. Back in the 1970s scientists believed autism was rare, occurring in only 4 in 10,000 children. Latest studies suggest autism is common, occurring in about 1% of children. This increase is almost certainly due to greater awareness of the condition leading to previously unidentified individuals with autism being diagnosed. An overwhelming majority (95%) of our survey participants agreed with this. Also, 67% percent thought that changes in the criteria for diagnosis have contributed. This has been shown to be the case for a number of different countries and health systems.
Identified prevalence of Autism Spectrum Disorder
ADDM Network 2000 - 2012
Combing data from all sites
YearBirth yearPrevalence per 1000 children (range)This is about 1 in X children
200019926.7 (4.5 - 9.9)1 in 150
200219946.6 (3.3 - 10.6)1 in 150
200419968.0 (4.6 - 9.8)1 in 125
200619989.0 (4.2 - 12.1)1 in 110
2008200011.3 (4.8 - 21.2)1 in 88
2010200214.7 (5.7 - 21.9)1 in 68
2012200414.6 (8.2 - 24.6)1 in 68
Where does genetics come in?
Just under half (48%) of respondents agreed that genetics had a role to play in autism. There has been decades of research on this topic, as far back as 1974 (on a set of 21 British twins.) Over the past four decades, studies suggest that 50–90% of the cause of autism is down to genetics. This is not to say that 50–90% of autism cases are caused by genetics alone — most cases will be caused by a combination of genetic and non-genetic factors. In other words, it is difficult to say for any one case of autism what the cause is, but we can learn something about the causes of autism across the whole population. Less than 1% of cases of autism are associated with a rare genetic mutation, so the genetic causes of autism are now thought to also include common variations in genes we all carry, occurring in particular combinations in those who go on to develop autism. The genes that have been identified are those that influence brain development, both brain structure and function.
Towards a 'cure'?
Many respondents to our survey were ‘uncomfortable’ with the idea of a ‘cure’ for autism. For many, in the absence of severe intellectual disability, it is not even clear that autism is a ‘disease’ that should be cured, rather than a different way of thinking. Nowadays the ‘neurodiversity’ view is that autism is both a disability (in social situations) and a difference (in processing information), and that we should of course be supporting the person with their disability whilst accepting, respecting and valuing their different way of thinking, which can sometimes lead to talent.
Lingering questions
It has long been known that autism is more common in boys than girls. This may be due to differences in how the diagnosis is made, or to exposure to sex linked hormones during fetal development, or to genetic differences, or to a mix of these factors. This is an area of very active research.
Finally, a big thanks to everyone who participated in this survey! If there are other questions, or ideas for what we can explore further please feel free to contact us!